Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Life's Like Stat

Finally done with my paper in my PhD class. This is just not going to end, I have a new batch to read again tonight. Argh! I think last weekend was more stressful because I had so many things to take care of, the technical report, the PhD paper, the exams and my sister's Stat exam. I really had to multitask. One minute I was thinking Psych another, I was thinking Stat. Thank goodness I had so much help in Stat and it was so fun too. The Psych paper paled in comparison unfortunately. I guess, at the end of the day, Math excites me more. I never thought I would say that in this lifetime.

A friend of mine asked me what I would do if for example he had three boxes with three balls of two possible colors rolling down. Two of them are black and one is white. I have to pick the box with the white ball to get the jackpot. He then opens one of the boxes and shows me that there's a black box inside, he asked me if I would change my mind. I thought okay, when I first picked there was 1/3 chance that I would get the white but 2/3 chance that I would get the black. When he opened one of the boxes then that would give me a 50% chance of getting the white or black. I was torn.

i initially had 2/3 chance of getting black so chances are, I probably picked the box with a black ball the first time I picked. There was a bigger chance that the ball inside the box I chose was black! So if he asks me to switch I should because I most probably picked the box with the black ball! How kewl is that?!

Wish he were my teacher in Stat, I bet it would have been awesome!

If I had known this years before, i swear I would have switched to the other box.

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